By choosing tennis as your chosen sport for betting, you have already given yourself an “edge” against people who bet on or offer odds on other sports. To utilize this “edge” to generate income consistently, however, you’ll need to know two fundamental principles first. Then apply the energy of mathematics.
Principle #1
It is sheer folly to position a golf bet (or a bet on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you simply cannot beat the bookie over time. It’s as the odds are usually mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone understands (or should know) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” from the punter is necessary for him to produce a profit so he can stay in business.
Computer technology has given rise to a new type of betting, called “exchange betting” or “matched betting” ;.With “betting exchanges” there’s no bookie to beat; put simply, there’s no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere out there in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet that a player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet that a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can decide to behave being an ordinary bettor and/or as a bookmaker.
With exchange betting the odds are not set with a third-party or middle-man; they are set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds of which they are prepared to position bets (if they wish to behave being an ordinary bettor), or place offers of odds of which they are prepared to lay bets (if they wish to behave as a bookmaker).
While the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds and the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting site matches all the trunk bets with all the current lay bets at the instant they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then credited with their winnings automatically a few seconds after the conclusion of the event according to its result.
Obviously, the technology for providing such a “fair” betting service should be covered somehow. This payment is taken in the proper execution of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an event (or “market”). That’s, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses for a passing fancy event.
You can find very few betting exchanges available, however, perhaps as the exchange betting software is so complex and therefore costly. The giant among exchange betting web sites is Betfair, with about 90% of industry at the time of writing. Others will be the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is undoubtedly typically the most popular because it absolutely was the first ever to offer this “perfectly fair” betting environment, and is trusted to execute accurately and instantly.
Principle #2
So, why does tennis betting give you that “edge” over betting on other sports? The solution, though simple, is frequently overlooked even by people who bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never bet on tennis, you’d almost certainly not need realized the significance of the tennis scoring system on the betting.
In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the initial set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team may then win the next set by the absolute most narrow of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the set by very few points (or even by winning fewer points than the opponents, an unusual but possible occurrence!).
This anomaly often includes a profound psychological effect on a single or both sides, which affects the direction they play for another few minutes, and therefore also the betting odds requested and made available from punters on the match. This, however, is another facet of tennis betting which might be the main topic of another article. This informative article deals with the mathematical facet of tennis betting and how to win money with this knowledge.
The key is to not be just a “backer” or a “layer”, simply betting on the last outcome of an event. Should you that, you’ll lose out over time, because there’s always a small difference involving the “back” odds and the “lay” odds — there should be, otherwise there’d be no incentive for anyone to offer odds and there’d be no betting at all. Combine that with the commission you pay on your own net winnings, and the “edge” is against you mathematically (although it’s never as great much like conventional bookmakers).
The secret to winning at tennis betting will be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points during the event. This is another facet of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting site from the standard bookie. At the betting exchange you can place a right back or lay bet anytime during the event, till the very last second or the last point. This is called “in-play” betting.
Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for each opposing side change as the event progresses, according to the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of just one side or another being the eventual winner. The trick is to position a right back bet on a single side at certain odds and later place a lay bet on that side (or a right back bet on another side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. If you can achieve this, you’ll win your bet overall, regardless of the outcome of the event — a true “win-win” scenario.
Why bet on tennis and not on other sports?
Aside from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is great for such “swing” betting, as the odds fluctuate after each and every point is played. You can find therefore lots แทงไก่ชนออนไลน์ of small swings to at least one side and then to the other. This doesn’t happen in soccer, for instance, because goals are so rare and a goal shifts the benefit suddenly and hugely to the scoring side.
The more possible outcomes you will find to factor into the equation, the more challenging it’s to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the two most widely used sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact that it is easier to generate income betting on tennis than on every other sport.)
Earlier it absolutely was stated that the key to winning at tennis betting will be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the event, placing bets at differing times during the event as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. This can be achieved with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.
One method combined with in-play betting is known as “scalping” ;.As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a little profit by backing or laying at precisely the right moment whilst the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores 2 or 3 consecutive points, and repeating the method again and again. The biggest drawback of scalping is it is very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not just must you pay full awareness of what’s happening during the match by live video broadcast, but you should also catch precisely the right moments of which to bet, which is, actually, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the time you set the bet and the time it’s accepted.
Mathematics do not lie!
There are certainly a few tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using software packages, some which are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the writer (a mathematician), they all require the input, at some point, of a “probability factor” by the bettor. This probability factor is normally the odds at which you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet on the “backed” side or the “back” bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, giving you the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.
So, how do you determine the worth of this probability factor? That, dear reader, is the crucial point of the complete matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines if it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.
Until now, it appears, this probability factor has had to be determined by the sheer experience of several seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that so many punters lose or do not win as much as they might because they do not know the EXACT value needed seriously to optimize their bets!
Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, to be able to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A research on the Web for something to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created the one that encompasses not only all areas of exchange betting but in addition the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of an improved name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the writer to create consistently significantly more than 10% make money from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.
